Is it possible the Kings could win 50 games?

Written by nate hughart on .

Okay. Let me be on record on saying that I think a likelihood for the Kings seems anywhere from 25 wins to 40 or even 45 wins. But 45 wins? Is that really impossible? That's what we are discussing here, and I would say that based on previous seasons that the answer is of course no. Therein lies the problem however: This team is not the same Kings team of previous seasons. And, of course, any real tangible improvement will be because Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins actually play as All-Star (or better) players all season long. 

I could contemplate a worse case scenario, but let me say this first: I won't bother. It's stupid. We've all seen bad teams, and bad teams are not fun to remember. (Useful from a context and information standpoint, but not exceptionally fun or enjoyable.) 

That said, I think it's possible that the Kings could win 50 games. After the jump I'll detail how.

Let me state the obvious here: You win 50 games by winning 50 individual games while only losing 32 in the same season. Like, duh. Smartassery aside, I think that a realistic route for the Kings to look at winning 50 games would be the following breakdown: 28-24 against Western opponents and 22-8 against Eastern opponents.

These are categories that I think are important here: The 3 game teams (Oklahoma City, Minnesota and New Orleans), the weak sisters of the West (Phoenix, Portland and Houston--the 4th 3 game team the Kings face), the rest of the Pacific Division (Golden State, both LA teams), and the rest of the West that the Kings will face 4 times this upcoming season (Memphis, Dallas, Denver, San Antonio and Utah). Every team faces 4 division opponents 3 times apiece, but because Houston is part of the weaker sisters group they are lumped in with Phoenix and Portland whom the Kings face 4 times apiece. Every division opponent you automatically face 4 times, and that's why Golden State and LA are both lumped in together as a separate group. Phoenix is with the weak sisters group because I'd be shocked if they weren't one of the 5 worst NBA teams this season. Then you have the Eastern Conference which I've already said that 22 wins is a reasonable number for the Kings to pull off if they are to win the pre-requisite 50 games this season. The real question is where those 22 wins come from. I would suspect that at least 13 wins at home would be needed to pull that number off, and on top of that 9 wins on the road. 

Against the 3 game teams, I would think that a reasonable record against those teams factoring in game situations and timing with things like back to back and the road would be 4-5. Yes, New Orleans is a tougher team with Anthony Davis, but the Hornets are not better anywhere else than the Kings other than Davis' spot right now. That's a significant advantage even with Davis around and two of the three contests being in New Orleans. Oklahoma City is a tough team, no doubt, but remember this is the same Kings team that a year ago that beat the Thunder in a big time TNT matchup in February. Anybody can win one game at the end of the day. And, while Minnesota is a tough team (I think they are a playoff team), I think the Kings can beat them given that two of the matchup's is at home with one being in November before Rubio is likely to come back (and certainly before Rubio is at his healthiest). Like I said, I think 4-5 is possible in this grouping with at least two of the victories against New Orleans (one at home and one there), and one at least against Minnesota and Oklahoma City.

In the division, I would think that 3-9 against the Warriors, Lakers and Clippers is reasonable. The Clippers and Lakers are tough, true, and getting a win or two would be exceptional given the Clippers swept the Kings last season and the Kings beat the Lakers on the toughest stretch the Lakers had all season (the first week without Bynum and in the midst of a b2b2b). Again, beating these teams is possible when you factor in the normal instances of the schedule. But, I don't know how the Kings will react, and I think beating any team with that kind of talent could be tough. So, even though I think 3-9 is a bit low over a 12 game stretch, I also think it's possible that the record looks that way. Beating the Warriors at least twice will be key I would think. The Kings can certainly do that.

The weak Sisters are an interesting conversation. A lot of people won't consider Portland there for a variety of reasons (namely LaMarcus Aldridge) and I think those people are wrong. I'll be really surprised if Portland is contending for a playoff spot beyond mid November. Phoenix, as I've said, I think will be pretty terrible all things considered, and Houston just doesn't have the horses to really compete when the lights come on. Jeremy Lin might have captured some fans imaginations for awhile, but doing it game in game out over an 82 game schedule is a different matter altogether. Every player faces that, and Lin is no different. The Rockets starting Center is Omer Asik and Asik is a guy who averaged 15 MPG for Chicago last season. Simply put, I don't think Houston will be very good because of the talent and the youth on that team.

The rest of the West may be where I think the Kings surprise people. I'm not stupid, but I think it's possible the Kings split those 5 teams with a 10-10 record. Here's how: 1-3 against OKC, 2-2 against Denver, Memphis and Utah, and 3-1 against Dallas. 

That's 4 wins against the 3 win teams, 9 wins against the weaker sisters, 3 wins against the remaining division teams, and 10 wins against the rest of the West. On the losses side of the ledger, you have 26 losses. Against 26 wins, that's not a bad place to be in reality. 26 wins against the West and 22 victories against the East gets you 48 wins. 26 wins against the West isn't impossible despite what any naysayer says. When you can matchup with anyone, and I think this Kings team can if things go right for them (which is asking a lot admittedly)

The 22 wins against the East is obviously a tall order too. I'm going to go throughout the season and start from game 1 to game 82 and take all considerations (that you can this far in advance) into account.

2013 REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE
OCTOBER OPPONENT TIME (PT) TV RECORD
Wed, Oct 31 5:00 PM
W 1-0
NOVEMBER OPPONENT TIME (PT) TV RECORD
Fri, Nov 2 5:00 PM
L 1-1
Sat, Nov 3 4:00 PM
L 1-2
Mon, Nov 5 7:00 PM
W 2-2
Wed, Nov 7 7:00 PM
W 3-2
Fri, Nov 9 7:00 PM
W 4-2
Sun, Nov 11 6:30 PM L 4-3
Tue, Nov 13 7:00 PM W 5-3
Fri, Nov 16 7:00 PM W 6-3
Sun, Nov 18 7:00 PM W 7-3
Wed, Nov 21 7:00 PM L 7-4
Fri, Nov 23 6:00 PM L 7-5
Sat, Nov 24 7:00 PM NBA TV W 8-5
Tue, Nov 27 7:00 PM W 9-5
Fri, Nov 30 7:00 PM W 10-5
DECEMBER OPPONENT TIME (PT) TV RECORD
Sat, Dec 1 7:30 PM NBA TV L 10-6
Wed, Dec 5 7:00 PM W 11-6
Fri, Dec 7 7:00 PM W 12-6
Sat, Dec 8 7:00 PM NBA TV W 13-6
Mon, Dec 10 5:30 PM L 13-7
Wed, Dec 12 5:00 PM W 14-7
Fri, Dec 14 5:00 PM L 14-8
Sun, Dec 16 6:00 PM W 15-8
Mon, Dec 17 6:00 PM W 16-8
Wed, Dec 19 7:00 PM W 17-8
Fri, Dec 21 7:30 PM L 17-9
Sun, Dec 23 6:00 PM W 18-9
Wed, Dec 26 7:00 PM L 18-10
Fri, Dec 28 7:00 PM W 19-10
Sun, Dec 30 6:00 PM W 20-10
JANUARY OPPONENT TIME (PT) TV RECORD
Tue, Jan 1 4:30 PM W 21-10
Wed, Jan 2 4:00 PM W 22-10
Fri, Jan 4 4:00 PM W 23-10
Sat, Jan 5 4:30 PM L 23-11
Mon, Jan 7 7:00 PM W 24-11
Thu, Jan 10 7:00 PM W 25-11
Sat, Jan 12 7:00 PM L 25-12
Mon, Jan 14 7:00 PM W 26-12
Wed, Jan 16 7:00 PM W 27-12
Fri, Jan 18 5:00 PM L 27-13
Sat, Jan 19 4:00 PM W 28-13
Mon, Jan 21 10:00 AM
L 28-14 
Wed, Jan 23 7:00 PM
W 29-14
Fri, Jan 25 7:00 PM L 29-15
Sat, Jan 26 6:00 PM L 29-16
Mon, Jan 28 4:00 PM L 29-17
Wed, Jan 30 4:30 PM L 29-18
FEBRUARY OPPONENT TIME (PT) TV RECORD
Fri, Feb 1 4:30 PM L 29-19
Sat, Feb 2 4:30 PM W 30-19
Mon, Feb 4 6:00 PM L 30-20
Sat, Feb 9 7:00 PM NBA TV W 31-20
Sun, Feb 10 6:00 PM W 32-20
Tue, Feb 12 5:00 PM L 32-21
Wed, Feb 13 5:30 PM L 32-22
Tue, Feb 19 7:00 PM W 33-22
Fri, Feb 22 4:30 PM L 33-23
Sun, Feb 24 3:00 PM L 33-24
Tue, Feb 26 4:30 PM L 33-25
Wed, Feb 27 4:00 PM W 34-25
MARCH OPPONENT TIME (PT) TV RECORD
Fri, Mar 1 5:30 PM L 34-26
Sun, Mar 3 3:00 PM W 35-26
Tue, Mar 5 7:00 PM W 36-26
Wed, Mar 6 7:30 PM L 36-27
Fri, Mar 8 7:00 PM W 37-27
Sun, Mar 10 7:00 PM W 38-27
Wed, Mar 13 7:00 PM W 39-27
Sun, Mar 17 6:30 PM L 39-28
Tue, Mar 19 7:00 PM W 40-28
Thu, Mar 21 7:00 PM W 41-28
Sat, Mar 23 6:00 PM L 41-29
Sun, Mar 24 6:00 PM W 42-29
Wed, Mar 27 7:30 PM L 42-30
Thu, Mar 28 7:00 PM W 43-30
Sat, Mar 30 7:00 PM L 43-31
APRIL OPPONENT TIME (PT) TV RECORD
Wed, Apr 3 7:00 PM W 44-31
Fri, Apr 5 7:00 PM
W 45-31
Sun, Apr 7 3:00 PM W 46-31
Wed, Apr 10 7:00 PM W 47-31
Fri, Apr 12 5:30 PM L 47-32
Sun, Apr 14 7:00 PM W 48-32
Mon, Apr 15 5:00 PM L 48-33
Wed, Apr 17 7:30 PM L 48-34

As you can see with the record portion part of this, I have the Kings winning 48 games (I don't think they will win all of the games nor lose all the one's I predicted either--it's just a very rough rule of thumb of games I believe the Kings can really win all things considered). 

Against the Eastern Conference, the Kings win 22 times (14 of those at home with the one loss being Miami), and that seems a stretch right now. Yet, I do believe it's possible. The Kings actually play 22 of their 30 games against the East before the All-Star break, and I believe the Kings may well surprise some teams along the way. (I doubt it though. Word gets out quickly these days.) Beyond that though, all of the home games are very favorable all things considered. Also, the Kings get Indiana, Cleveland, Brooklyn, Charlotte, New York, and Orlando on the 2nd game of a back to back. Given the teams on that list, that isn't a bad draw if you're talking second game of back to back type scenarios. Overall, there are a total of 16 back to back's on the season, and as you probably have figured out that 6 of those involve Eastern Conference teams. (There are two that start in the West and go East. One is at the beginning of the season going from Minnesota to Indiana--hardly terrible IMO--and the other is Memphis on the front end with Charlotte on the back end. All in all, it could be much worse. There is also a back to back where the Kings play Golden State on the front end of a road back to back, and Phoenix on the back end. Back to back's aren't great, but it could be significantly worse all considered.)

One interesting quirk about the All-Star game is that since the game is in Houston this season, the Kings who may end up going to All-Star weekend (DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Thomas Robinson and Isaiah Thomas are the most likely candidates) won't have to travel very far to get there since the last game before the All-Star break is in Dallas.

Against the West, that's a different story for this Kings team. At the top I mentioned that to get 50 wins, one formula is 22 wins against the East and 28 wins against the West. In this unscientific eyeball nonsense, the Kings win 26 games (2 less than needed for victories against West teams). In the weak sisters category, I had 10 wins vs a single loss (up top I had a 9-2 record), in the 3 times vs West team category I had 3-6 (I said 4-5 is needed), against the division I had 3-9 in this count (vs 3-9 before), and 10-10 against the rest of the  West. Where the Kings must do, in otherwords, is figure out how to win against all the bad teams, sneak a few one's against the East contenders on the road and at home, and sneak a few against the West in the process.

To say it can't be done, if you remember a few years ago the Oklahoma City Thunder did just exactly that: Win 22 times against the East and 28 times versus the West. The Thunder also won 27 times at home along with 23 road wins (highly unusual for such a young team). There is a template and in recent history no less for a franchise to do these type of things. (Portland also won 50 games with a pretty young team, but Portland hadn't finished with a terrible record like Oklahoma  City had the season prior.) There are some other fairly eery parallel's to these two teams too. One is that Scott Brooks, like Keith Smart, finished an interim status season (although Smart was given his extra year before the season ended unlike Brooks) with a nearly identical winning percentage to Smart's last season. Smart at 20-39 had a 33.8 winning percentage. Brooks had a 22-47 record for a 31.8 winning percentage. What's even more eery is that Smart and Brooks coached most of the season in each case: Smart coached 89% of the games last season and Brooks coached 84% of the season that year. Not truly spooky shit here, but nothing to sneeze at. Like I said, parallels.

Do I think the Kings will get 50 wins? Quite probably not. History says no. But history said OKC wouldn't improve by 27 games in the victory column, and Oklahoma City did just that in the 2009-10 season. Things can change. Improvement can be had. Behavior can be modified. Upgrades and internal improvement, along with outside acquisitions, can help a team change an identity fairly quickly along with the talent holdover's. 

What I am saying is that the possibiliy exists if DeMarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans have All-Star level seasons for the entire season. You look at the talent currently on this team, and there is quite a lot of that too, and there is a strong potential for a significant improvement in defense overall, defensive rebounding, total points, efficiency on the offensive end, and even possibly a slight bump in three point percentage too. There is a lot of possibility to improve on a 21st overall ORtg (points per 100 possessions) and 29th overall on DRtg (points per 100 possessions). The Kings gave up the worst percentage eFG% on the 4 Factors, was 29th overall in DRB% and was decent enough in forcing turnovers and giving up fouls in relation to the field goals. (I'm not confident that means anything much yet to be honest.)

There is better defensive talent in James Johnson and Thomas Robinson. There is two possible All-Star players in Tyreke Evans and  DeMarcus Cousins. Chuck Hayes and John Salmons may very well rebound to their reasonable career norm's on a per minute basis. Aaron Brooks might not be a superstud like some once thought, but are you telling me that Brooks can't help the shooting and production of the PG spot assuming Brooks is a backup? Thomas Robinson might be the starter at PF by the end of the season. If Jason Thompson is the backup C/PF, you could argue JT is among the two or three best backup big's in the entire league. There are a lot of if's here. If I felt more confident about Tyreke and DeMarcus doing what's necessary, I'd be more arrogant about it. But I don't, and that's where we are at. 

It's asking a lot to improve, but since when that isn't the case? Improvement requires a roster, the existing hold over talent and the new additions, to improve the weak area's while not taking a step back in whatever area's were a strength to begin with. (Offensive rebounding is not something I'm terribly worried about the Kings losing at this juncture. Run an offense that is designed to get good shots and not grab the boards which actually helps a team. Seriously. I am starting to come to the realization that some Kings fans will probably get whiplash from the idea that this group might run actual basketball plays that are coherent, competent, and professional.)  

I'm not going to predict a 50 win season. That is just too mind-blowingly ridiculous for me right now despite painting a scenario where it might even be possible in the most optimistic of times. (Training camp.) That said, if it happens, we'll know why. And looking back it will be interesting to see what could be reasonable to predict, what's not, and what really changed that saw a significant improvement in the win category. That is something to root for, and I'm hoping for a 50 win season. If it happens, my hope will be rewarded. But I'm not stupid: I know better than to expect anything with this group. I just believe that there might be something brewing with this group (there is a different feel to this team this year for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on--and I'm not talking about how "well" these guys get along with each other--consider the extra work Thomas Robinson put from this Jones blog piece at the Bee  as one reason why) that could see this team shock the world and enter the playoff stage for the first time since 2006. 

That being said, I still think this is a likely .500 team this year. But I'm going to hope and dream for a 50 win season. After all, what do I have to lose? 

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