Jason Thompson and Ryan Anderson: Who offers more to the roster long term?

The question posing towards Kings fans, and probably Kings management, is can Ryan Anderson offer more long term than Jason Thompson?

First up the stats of Jason Thompson advanced stat wise:

Season Age Tm G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
2008-09 22 SAC 82 2303 13.9 .540 .497 11.8 19.0 15.4 14.8 19.3 106 114 1.8 0.9 2.7 .057
2009-10 23 SAC 75 2357 14.6 .518 .473 10.8 20.3 15.5 13.3 19.6 106 109 1.9 2.0 4.0 .081
2010-11 24 SAC 75 1748 13.6 .533 .507 9.1 20.7 14.8 13.7 17.9 106 109 1.4 1.5 2.9 .079
2011-12 25 SAC 64 1657 16.4 .558 .535 10.5 19.3 14.7 11.5 15.5 115 109 3.1 0.8 3.9 .114
Career 296 8065 14.5 .535 .498 10.6 19.8 15.1 13.5 18.3 108 110 8.3 5.2 13.5 .080

Here is Ryan Anderson’s advanced stats:

Season Age Tm G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
2008-09 20 NJN 66 1312 13.6 .532 .478 9.3 19.0 14.1 12.1 18.6 108 109 1.3 1.2 2.5 .090
2009-10 21 ORL 63 911 18.1 .574 .536 9.2 16.2 12.8 11.7 24.4 112 103 1.7 1.4 3.1 .161
2010-11 22 ORL 64 1424 19.0 .591 .558 10.8 18.1 14.5 7.8 20.3 122 101 3.9 2.5 6.4 .217
2011-12 23 ORL 61 1964 21.2 .589 .548 13.0 14.7 13.8 6.4 21.2 124 105 7.0 1.9 8.9 .219
Career 254 5611 18.4 .575 .535 11.0 16.8 13.9 8.9 20.9 118 105 13.9 7.0 20.9 .179

Now, here is the Kings 4 Factor stats for last season:

Offense Four Factors Defense Four Factors
PW PL MOV SOS SRS ORtg DRtg Pace eFG% TOV% ORB% FT/FGA eFG% TOV% DRB% FT/FGA Arena Attendance
Team 21 45 -5.68 0.73 -4.95 103.8 109.8 94.7 .472 13.0 29.1 .197 .515 13.9 70.5 .199 Power Balance Pavilion 478,764
Lg Rank 27 27 27 2 25 21 29 1 27 5 7 18 30 13 29 10 28

And for the Magic:

Offense Four Factors Defense Four Factors
PW PL MOV SOS SRS ORtg DRtg Pace eFG% TOV% ORB% FT/FGA eFG% TOV% DRB% FT/FGA Arena Attendance
Team 35 31 0.79 -0.33 0.46 105.0 104.1 89.0 .506 14.5 26.5 .193 .488 12.9 75.5 .190 Amway Center 661,279
Lg Rank 15 15 15 20 17 15 12 29 4 23 20 23 14 25 2 7 11

Esseentially, and while these things are hardly perfect in terms of total measure, one could conclude that Jason Thompson is slightly better than the team DRtg, and Anderson is slightly worse than the Magic’s DRtg. What does this mean? Hardly anything at all in of itself.

 

Basketball Value has Adjusted Plus/Minus which can give some idea of how perhaps a player fits in chemistry wise compared to the rest of the team. These things are not perfect, but they are what they are. For Ryan Anderson:

2 Year
Adj. +/-
1 Year
Adj. +/-
Unadjusted
Simple On Court
Unadjusted
Weighted Teams Off Court
Unadjusted
Weighted Difference
Teams +/- SE +/- SE Min Poss
For
Poss
Opp
Pts
For
Pts
Opp
Off
Rtg
Def
Rtg
Overall
Rtg
Min Poss
For
Poss
Opp
Pts
For
Pts
Opp
Off
Rtg
Def
Rtg
Overall
Rtg
Overall
Rtg On
Overall
Rtg Off
Overall
Rtg Net
ORL 5.49 3.21 8.85 5.75 1,635.07 3068 3038 3381 3156 110.20 103.88 6.32 1,029.72 1886 1914 1774 1980 94.06 103.45 -9.39 6.32 -9.39 15.70

 

Now Jason Thompson:

2 Year
Adj. +/-
1 Year
Adj. +/-
Unadjusted
Simple On Court
Unadjusted
Weighted Teams Off Court
Unadjusted
Weighted Difference
Teams +/- SE +/- SE Min Poss
For
Poss
Opp
Pts
For
Pts
Opp
Off
Rtg
Def
Rtg
Overall
Rtg
Min Poss
For
Poss
Opp
Pts
For
Pts
Opp
Off
Rtg
Def
Rtg
Overall
Rtg
Overall
Rtg On
Overall
Rtg Off
Overall
Rtg Net
SAC 3.17 2.91 6.02 5.08 1,573.53 3112 3110 3299 3426 106.01 110.16 -4.15 1,465.47 2896 2896 2907 3151 100.38 108.81 -8.43 -4.15 -8.43 4.27

 

Not surprisingly, Ryan Anderson fares better in this area as well. What is interesting that both Anderson and Thompson’s value in the net category often stem from the lack of productivity from their replacements.

And of course, the 82games data on both players. Anderson first:

Player 48-Minute Production by Position

Position
FGA
eFG%
FTA
iFG
Reb
Ast
T/O
Blk
PF
Pts
PER*
PG
SG
SF
.0   .000   .0   0%  2880.0   .0   .0   .0   .0   .0   .0  
PF
18.4   .550   4.2   30%  11.3   1.3   1.4   .6   3.5   23.9   21.1  
C
19.4   .529   4.1   38%  13.8   1.9   1.1   1.1   4.9   24.6   24.1  

Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production

Position
FGA
eFG%
FTA
iFG
Reb
Ast
T/O
Blk
PF
Pts
PER*
PG
SG
SF
.0   .000   .0   0%  .0   .0   .0   .0   .0   .0   .0  
PF
15.6   .486   3.5   38%  9.8   2.4   2.2   .7   4.0   17.8   14.1  
C
13.8   .405   8.6   45%  10.4   3.4   3.0   2.2   3.7   18.3   15.7  

Net 48-Minute Production by Position

Position
FGA
eFG%
FTA
iFG
Reb
Ast
T/O
Blk
PF
Pts
PER*
PG
SG
SF
.0  .000  .0  0% 2880.0  .0  .0  .0  .0  .0  .0  
PF
2.9  .064  .7  -8% 1.5  -1.2  .8  -.1  .5  6.1  7.0  
C
5.6  .123  -4.5  -7% 3.4  -1.5  1.9  -1.1  -1.1  6.3  8.4  

And Jason Thompson:

Player 48-Minute Production by Position

Position
FGA
eFG%
FTA
iFG
Reb
Ast
T/O
Blk
PF
Pts
PER*
PG
SG
SF
.0   .000   .0   0%  .0   .0   .0   .0   .0   .0   .0  
PF
12.6   .505   5.5   55%  12.9   2.3   1.9   1.3   4.5   16.2   16.1  
C
13.8   .671   4.2   64%  12.4   2.3   2.3   1.0   3.3   20.6   21.2  

Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production

Position
FGA
eFG%
FTA
iFG
Reb
Ast
T/O
Blk
PF
Pts
PER*
PG
SG
SF
.0   .000   .0   0%  .0   .0   .0   .0   .0   .0   .0  
PF
15.5   .512   3.9   36%  11.4   2.4   2.7   2.3   5.4   18.6   15.2  
C
14.0   .481   4.7   45%  15.9   2.8   4.0   1.9   4.9   16.9   14.7  

Net 48-Minute Production by Position

Position
FGA
eFG%
FTA
iFG
Reb
Ast
T/O
Blk
PF
Pts
PER*
PG
SG
SF
.0  .000  .0  0% .0  .0  .0  .0  .0  .0  .0  
PF
-2.8  -.007  1.5  19% 1.5  -.1  .8  -.9  .9  -2.4  .9  
C
-.2  .190  -.5  19% -3.5  -.5  1.7  -.9  1.6  3.7  6.5  

One thing that is clear: These are two quality young players whom one has benefitted playing with one of the best players in the league and quality veteran players, and another who is a quality player who has not beneffited from getting to play with one of the best players in the league and quality veteran players.

In otherwords, nothing you didn’t know. That’s the problem.

Thompson’s strengths is his all around capability, even if he isn’t a master of many things (outside of offensive rebounding and running the floor), and the fact that JT can play both C and PF defensively.

Anderson’s strengths is his shooting overall (from 3 pt land and FT shooting), the spacing that provides, the not as terribly advertised rebounding (especially offensively) and defense, and that Anderson is a team player. The only negative here is that Anderson is not a SF, he’s not a C, and he is a PF.

So the question then becomes: What is most important for this team? Do they need better defense and rebounding with JT? Do they need a guy who will get most of his points at the rim, and not from the perimeter as with Anderson.

Both are worthwhile players. The question then becomes: Is Ryan Anderson worth signing to forgo Jason Thompson?

Again, I think both are useful as players. I just think for a team that needs to upgrade it’s defense, getting a player who is worse on defense than Thompson won’t help. On the other hand, Ryan Anderson will dramatically upgrade the perimeter shooting and spacing the Kings need.

The only issue I have with the Kings is if they try to sign Anderson AND Thompson trying to make RA into a SF. If they choose Anderson, I’ll understand and not agree. If they choose Thompson, it will be the right choice.

The only question that remains: Who does what when where and how?

Yeah, welcome to life as a Kings fan.